A Practical Go/No-Go Framework with pWin Scoring

Why the decision beats the writing

Proposal capacity is finite. Every low-probability pursuit costs you a high-probability one. The fastest way to raise your win rate is not better writing — it is a disciplined gate that says no early, consistently and for documented reasons. The framework below takes under an hour per opportunity when the inputs are automated, and far less than the week a doomed bid costs.

Part 1: The opportunity brief

Before scoring anything, compress the solicitation into a one-page brief everyone decides from. Same facts, same page, no optimism tax:

• Scope — what is actually being bought, in one paragraph
• Buyer — who evaluates, who signs, and their known priorities or incumbent
• Money — contract value, period of performance, pricing model
• Clock — due date, Q&A deadline, and the real calendar days you’d have
• Rules — set-asides, mandatory qualifications, certifications, pass/fail gates
• Evaluation — how it will be scored (factors and weights)

Part 2: Capability and past-performance fit

Fit is where honest teams separate from hopeful ones. Score each dimension 1–5 against evidence, not aspiration:

• Technical fit — can you deliver the full scope today, without “we’d figure it out”?
• Past-performance fit — do you have referenceable work of similar size, scope and buyer type?
• Differentiators — what do you offer that credible competitors can’t claim?
• Gaps — mandatory requirements you can’t meet, and whether teaming closes them

This is where a knowledge graph of your projects, people, certifications and contracts earns its keep: fit scoring stops being a memory exercise and becomes a lookup — which cleared staff, which similar contracts, which certifications, matched against the requirements automatically.

Part 3: Pursuit feasibility

A winnable bid you can’t staff is a no-go. Feasibility asks whether you can mount a competitive pursuit in the time available:

• Capacity — are the right SMEs and writers actually available for the window?
• Intelligence — did you know this buyer before the RFP dropped, or are you cold?
• Competition — how many credible bidders, and is there an entrenched incumbent?
• Economics — can you price to win and still hit margin?

Rolling it into a pWin score

Weight the factors to your strategy (fit usually heaviest), score each 1–5, and normalize to a 0–100 pWin. Then enforce a threshold: for example, below 40 is an automatic no-go, 40–60 requires an executive exception with a written rationale, above 60 is a go. The exact numbers matter less than the discipline — a shared rubric makes pursuits comparable and makes “no” defensible.